Spencer Li (Synapse Trading)

Just a reminder this is happening next Wednesday (11 Sept), if you are looking to get started in trading and investing, and want to learn how to generate active and passive income from the financial markets, this live trading session is a great way to see how it is done! Click here to register: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=24088

Here is some feedback from our last workshop! 💪

Want to learn how to create a second source of income with 15 minutes a day? Join me in the next live trading workshop, where I share the trading skills & strategies I used to become a self-made millionaire in my 20s, which allowed me to travel to 70+ countries, buy a penthouse, and invest in various businesses. I will also be doing a comprehensive market analysis covering various markets, showcasing my current portfolio allocations, and lastly we will be doing some live trading together. This is great for those who are looking to take their first trade in a safe and guided setting, within a fun-infused and content-packed workshop. I am limiting this workshop to only 15 pax to ensure a good learning experience, so register early to avoid disappointment: 👇🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/?p=24088 Date: 11 Sept 2024 (Wed) P.S. This is not a sales preview or a "motivational" seminar, it is a paid workshop ($25) for those who are serious about starting their trading journey with me. See you soon! 💪🏻🙂🔥

Summary: -The current market scenario suggests a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar and sideways movement in crypto. -For stocks, I’m focusing on value components like DIA, SPY, and PPA, along with the Indian stock market. -Bonds, gold, and silver remain the best assets to hold, with significant potential for further gains. -Continuing to accumulate on dips in these assets, while staying cautious in the more volatile sectors like semiconductors and small caps. Forex: U.S. Dollar (USD): The USD has been weakening, particularly against the Singapore Dollar (SGD). The USDSGD is approaching the bottom of its multi-year range around 1.3, presenting a good buying opportunity. Japanese Yen (JPY): The USDJPY pair saw a significant decline of nearly 12%, driven by the unwinding of the Yen carry trade as Japan raises rates while the U.S. prepares to cut rates. Further weakening of the USD against the Yen is expected. Crypto: Bitcoin: The crypto market has been chopping sideways and gradually drifting downwards. Prices remain below key moving averages, indicating a bearish outlook. There’s no clear trend at the moment, so I’m staying out of crypto investments for now. Ethereum: Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum is below all major moving averages and is forming a bearish rising wedge. There’s a possibility it might test the 2,200 level again. I have minimal exposure to crypto at this time, focusing on better opportunities elsewhere. Main Indices: DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Performing strongly, currently less than 2% off its all-time highs. The bullish ascending triangle pattern suggests potential for new highs. I've already invested and plan to buy more if it breaks new highs. SPY (S&P 500): Similar to DIA, SPY is near its all-time highs, with only a few percent to go. The market could break new highs soon. QQQ (Nasdaq 100): Still about 5-6% away from its all-time highs. The recent rally was strong but occurred on low volume, which is a concern. A potential 5% correction may occur soon. IWM (Russell 2000): Small caps have underperformed. I have a small position but am not looking to add more as it doesn’t seem strong at this point. SMH (Semiconductor Index): Similar to QQQ, SMH seems overbought. I've taken small short positions, anticipating a rotation away from semiconductors towards value-based sectors. ETFs: PPA (Defense and Weapons ETF): With increasing global conflict, PPA recently made new all-time highs and may continue its upward trend. India Stock Market ETF: The India market is near its all-time highs, showing strength. I'm holding and monitoring for potential new highs. Bonds: TLT (Long-Term Bonds): TLT remains a strong asset, benefiting from anticipated rate cuts. I’m buying on dips, with it being one of the largest positions in my portfolio. Commodities: Gold: Performing well, near all-time highs. I've been accumulating gold since it was below $2,000, with long-term targets of $2,750 to $3,000. Gold makes up a significant portion of my portfolio. Silver: Similar to gold, silver is in a strong uptrend. I’ve also been accumulating silver, which, along with gold and bonds, makes up about 40% of my portfolio. Real Estate: REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts): REITs are sensitive to interest rates, and with the expectation of lower rates, they’ve shown bullish price action. I've added some REITs to my portfolio, anticipating further gains.

[New blog post] The Yen Carry Trade: Unwinding and Its Global Implications Link: https://synapsetrading.com/yen-carry-trade-unwinding/

Market Commentary Lots of things happended in the market recently: 1. BOJ hiking rates while US is preparing to cut rates. This cased Yen to spike up while USD went down, triggering an unwinding of the Yen carry trade. 2. The US had a bad jobs data report (NFP) 3. All these led to a sudden risk-off panic mode, where risk assets started selling off. This included stocks (esp tech stocks), crypto, etc. This is why I held a large amount of TLT and Gold/silver to hedge against such an event. 4. The collapse of the Japanese stock market (Nikkei), which suffered the biggest 2-day drop in history, surpassing Black Monday. 5. This also led to a sell-off of the USD, but is hedged by the increase in TLT and Gold. 6. Crypto crashed over the weekend, and is likely to continue falling until the dust settles. 7. Berkshire Hathaway has been dumping more shares this quarter than ever before, including 50% of its Apple holdings. This is considered a major recession red flag. 8. Trump's overwhelming lead in the prediction markets has diminished because of Kamala's momentum. Polymarket now shows Trump at 52% and Kamala at 44%. 9. The US tipped off the G-7 that Iran might strike Israel within the next 24 hours, according to Axios.

Last weekend, we conducted another online workshop on the basics of trading and investing, and since it is a SkillsFuture Credit-Eligible Course, participants could use their SkillsFuture credits to pay for the course instead of cash. Thanks for the support! 🙏 During the 9 hours of training, participants learnt portfolio strategies to build and protect their wealth, as well as trading skills like market-timing, chart-reading and risk management to improve their trading results. Find out more: 👇🏻 https://synapsetrading.com/skillsfuture-course-trading-investing-3/

Snippets from my "Daily Trading Signals" group: The 4 indices are rotating, now IWM and DIA is more bullish than SPY and QQQ. You can get exposure to stocks via: 1. buying general ETFs (IWM, DIA, SPY, QQQ) 2. Buying sector or themed ETFs (IGV, CIBR, SMH, XLF, etc) 3. buying individual stocks - higher risk because you need to pick the right stocks. Forex USD still bearish EURNZD: 500+ pips profit GBPCAD: breakout + uptrend USDJPY: wait for breakout on either side Crypto Bitcoin: bullish, expect new highs Ethereum: same Solana: same Main indices QQQ: expect correction, loaded shorts. Waiting to buy once it drops to support near 50-EMA SPY: overbought DIA: ascending triangle breakout, enter on pullbacks IWM: ascending triangle breakout, enter on pullbacks ETFs WCLD: bottom of channel, go long IGV: bullish WGMI: breakout, bullish SMH: bearish, overbought KWEB: hold and wait FLIN: still going strong FLJP: bullish Stocks BRK.B: triangle breakout, enter on pullbacks Bonds & REITs TLT: bullish, buy on pullbacks REET: bullish breakout Commodities Gold and Silver: bullish, near ATHs PHO: near ATHs Coffee futues: cup and handle pattern XLE: bullish

I have some Q&A short videos on IG, might be useful for new traders: https://www.instagram.com/synapsetrading_official