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U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2024 The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $25.8 billion, or 10.7 percent, to $266.8 billion in the second quarter of 2024, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised first-quarter deficit was $241.0 billion. The second-quarter deficit was 3.7 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.4 percent in the first quarter. Full Text Published September 19, 2024 at 05:30AM Read more at bea.gov
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“.. FOMC expects 25bp easings ahead, but labor data will force a faster pace.” “.. changes in monetary policy have no impact on employment in the first four quarters and have their peak impact after eight quarters.” 👀 Pantheon Macro
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Link to Powell presser live: https://www.youtube.com/live/GNRR6EFLdXU
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FOMC Press Conference September 18, 2024

Captions:

https://www.streamtext.net/player?event=CFI-FRB&chat=false

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole; fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations. Visit the Federal Reserve’s website at www.federalreserve.gov for more information.

🔸POWELL: OUR DECISION TODAY REFLECTS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT STRENGTH IN LABOR MARKET CAN BE MAINTAINED
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Fed cuts 50bps
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REMINDER: FOMC decision will be Wednesday at 2pm EST, with Powell presser to follow at 2:30pm. For the first time in a long time, there is much uncertainty about what decision to Fed will make; 25bps or 50bps cut.
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Rate cut expectations for this week's fed meeting hang in balance at around 50/50 for 25bps vs 50bps
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From $RH's Gary Friedman on the call yesterday: "Do not cut the rates until you absolutely have killed inflation. Leave no doubt because if it starts going up and down and so on and so forth, it's anywhere like that period that, I mean, it's like the worst 10-year economic period in American history, except for the Great Depression. And you don't want that to happen. I'd rather hang on and we're going to inflect no matter what." BespokeInvest
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11 stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up more than 100% on the year. Viking Therapeutics $VKTX is up the most at 259%. Cava $CAVA, AppLovin $APP, Carvana $CVNA, and NVIDIA $NVDA round out the top five. Here’s a full list of the year’s biggest winners BespokeInvest
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Small caps finally had a period of outperformance $IWM up 2.5%, $SPY up 0.47% today
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