Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital

The 50BP came to pass as we opined days back . But did the decision add up? Here’s our opinion https://www.linkedin.com/posts/plazo-sullivan-roche-capital_oped-the-federal-reserves-paradoxical-rate-activity-7242469594114711552-KeCs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

FOMC statement: We got FIFTY BP cut as expected on a vote of 11-1

The day has come, and it's #FOMC decision day. The market is pricing in a 50BP cut with it having a 65% vs a 25 of 35%. $SPY / $SPX market pricing in a 1.07% implied move. Anything less than 50bps cut by Fed and equity markets will fall significantly. Gold silver might be dragged lower, but only temporarily. That'll be a great buying opportunity for precious metals. Let's see. If you're not in forex trade today, it's better to avoid a new setup. They'll hunt both sides. If you must trade- position your entries on 90FVG order blocks. Refer to the citations in the images. Prices can double whiplash to these levels for a lethal liquidity grab

THREE US Senators including Warren call for 75BP cuts this Wednesday The Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth and prevent a potential recession. Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, and Sheldon Whitehouse, have written to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, urging him to cut the federal funds rate by a significant margin. The senators argue that high interest rates are constraining the labor market, pushing up unemployment, and discouraging businesses from investing. They point to the recent decline in job growth and the rise in jobless claims as evidence of the negative impact of the Fed's current monetary policy. Specifically, the senators recommend that the Fed cut the federal funds rate from its current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to between 4.5% and 4.75%. They believe that this reduction would provide a much-needed boost to the economy, without exacerbating inflationary pressures. While the Fed has indicated that it is considering a rate cut, the extent of the reduction remains uncertain. The market is currently assigning a 41% probability to a 0.25% rate cut and a 59% probability to a 0.5% cut at the Fed's next meeting. However, there is still a chance that the Fed could opt for a more aggressive cut, particularly if economic data continues to deteriorate. It is important to note that a rate cut is not without risks. Some economists argue that a too-rapid or too-large reduction could reignite inflationary pressures, leading to a more prolonged period of economic instability. Additionally, a rate cut could send the wrong signal to investors, suggesting that the Fed is losing confidence in its ability to manage the economy. Ultimately, the Fed will need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of a rate cut. A well-timed and appropriately sized reduction could provide a much-needed boost to the economy, but a misstep could have serious consequences.

Based on the information available up to September 11, 2024, the sentiment following the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump leans in favor of Kamala Harris. Here's a synthesis of the sentiment: Media and Analyst Reviews: Various sources, including those not traditionally aligned with either party, have indicated that Kamala Harris was perceived as the winner of the debate. She was noted for maintaining composure, presenting her points clearly, and effectively getting under Trump's skin, which led to him appearing flustered or off-message at times. Public Reaction on Tiktok, Facebook and Forums: Users have expressed a sentiment that Harris performed better. There's a sense of satisfaction among Democratic supporters and some independent viewers, with comments highlighting Harris's clarity, composure, and her ability to make Trump look "out of touch" or "angry." Debate Performance Analysis: Harris was praised for her strategy of staying on message, particularly on issues like the economy, immigration, and Trump's past statements and actions. Trump, on the other hand, was criticized for repeating old claims, getting sidetracked, and not effectively countering Harris's points, which led to a perception that he was on the defensive. Lead in Sentiment: While sentiment analysis from social feed can be biased due to the nature of social media, the general consensus from both immediate reactions and more detailed analyses suggests that Harris managed to take a lead in the debate's immediate aftermath in terms of public perception and media narrative. This doesn't directly translate to electoral lead but indicates a positive reception for her debate performance. Political Impact: The debate's outcome might influence undecided voters or those leaning towards Harris due to her perceived stronger performance. However, Trump's base, as seen in previous elections, might remain largely unshaken, focusing more on his policy promises and less on debate performance. Given this context, while Kamala Harris appears to have taken a lead in the immediate post-debate sentiment, it's crucial to understand that: Polls and Real Impact: Social Sentiment or immediate post-debate polls might not fully reflect broader voter sentiment or the actual electoral impact. Historical data shows that debate performances can influence undecided voters but might not significantly sway the committed base of either candidate. Future Dynamics: The debate's impact could be more about setting the narrative for the remaining campaign days rather than a definitive shift in voter preference. Trump's campaign might pivot strategies or focus more on grassroots efforts or specific policy promises to counteract this narrative. In summary, while Kamala Harris has garnered positive feedback and might have taken a lead in the immediate post-debate sentiment, the long-term electoral impact remains to be seen through subsequent polls and the unfolding campaign dynamics.

Let's get your week started with smart entries! For US30, a good entry stands at 40,402. For Nasdaq, that would be 18,475. For SP500, look for an entry at 5,418. For gold, analyze the 2,470. Finally BTC surged from 52,000 and stands at the 56,000 fair value gap. If tomorrow's CPI data is favorable, we see 66 thousand shortly. All these entries pertain to 90 minute cycle fair value gaps and order blocks. Keep an eye for the 16th of September. Rate cuts will be announced. For our analysis on CPI impact, see our latest podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/plazo-sullivan-roche-capital_cpi-data-drops-tomorrow-and-rate-cuts-in-ugcPost-7239121307806633984-Nw5U

Let's get your week started with smart entries! For US30, a good entry stands at 40,402. For Nasdaq, that would be 18,475. For SP500, look for an entry at 5,418. For gold, analyze the 2,470. Finally BTC surged from 52,000 and stands at the 56,000 fair value gap. If tomorrow's CPI data is favorable, we see 66 thousand shortly. All these entries pertain to 90 minute cycle fair value gaps and order blocks. Keep an eye for the 16th of September. Rate cuts will be announced.

The Bathala Engine and the Change of State of Delivery had been updated. For those who have our AI, remove the old versions and install the ugrade. Bathala uses fractals to identify market structure shifts and breaks of structure. Change of states of deliver identifies critical market turning points that are often revisited. These are advanced order bloks by volume. Download: https://www.tradingview.com/v/FBEHPMDr/ and https://www.tradingview.com/v/1oKrIygO/

Our Athena AI on the most likely winner of the U.S. presidential election

Are you the degen investor who bets a it all on useless NFTs or shitcoins? You can make it big or lose it all. Or are you the savvy trader who understands order flow, FVGs and daily bias. The former thinks himself a guru and is often wiped out. The latter makes consistently returns and can hit 20,000% in a quarter. The bullrun is commencing. Which are you ?